Weekly Mont Belvieu Propane-Butane Price Review December 1st 2023

By Godwin Okoduwa ــ Last Update 03 December 2023

Weekly Mont Belvieu Propane-Butane price review December December 1st 2023

Our assessment for last week's daily Mont Belvieu propane and butane in USD/mt (3.5% and 3.9% up respectively on the weekly average):

27th November: 331.5; 393.7

28th November: 335.2; 399.8

29th November: 344.3; 410.8

30th November: 356.9; 423.0

1st Decemmber: 378.7; 460.4

We experienced a notable increase in average weekly LPG prices last week, with Butane surpassing not only the 400 USD region but also breaching the 450 mark. If this upward trajectory persists, there's a possibility of reaching the 500 USD mark. This considerable surge is likely influenced by the recent OPEC decision to extend oil production cuts into the first quarter of 2024.

Oil Prices and Market Dynamics:

Oil prices have also displayed an upward trend, reaching 81 USD for Bonny Light crude. Besides the OPEC cuts and renewed hostilities in the Middle East post the ceasefire expiration, the increase lacks a clear justification, especially considering; the US Crude Oil stock at its highest in years, minimal pressure on Oil and Gas demand, and generally lackluster market conditions. Our projection leans towards a bearish market. We do not foresee oil prices hitting 100 USD or LPG prices reaching 500 USD during the winter period.

Nigeria LPG Depots:

In Nigeria, LPG depot prices have dipped below 16 Million per 20MT, with A A Rano and NIPCO PLC among the depots selling at 15.8 and 15.9 Million Naira, respectively. However, with the substantial increase in Mont Belvieu prices, we anticipate a corresponding response in the local market. Signs of this adjustment may emerge towards the end of the week if not immediately.

Retail Prices:

Reports indicate varying retail prices across different regions. In Lekki, Lagos, a 12.5 kg LPG cylinder reportedly sells for 12,000.00 Naira. Other sources suggest prices ranging from 11,875 to 15,625.00 Naira per 12.5kg in Ebonyi, Cross River, and Gombe. For detailed insights, please stay tuned for our November retail prices report.

Please feel free to reach out if you have any questions or require a more in-depth analysis of these market developments. Our team is committed to providing the insights and guidance necessary for effectively navigating this dynamic market.