Weekly Mont Belvieu Propane-Butane price review October 20 2023
Our assessment for last week's daily Mont Belvieu propane and butane in USD/mt (1.5% and 3.3% up respectively on the weekly average):
16th October: 361.4; 358.7
17th October: 367.5; 362.3
18th October: 369.6; 369.5
19th October: 364.4; 370.6
20th October: 359.0; 372.5
LPG Prices Confirm Bullish Trend:
For the first time in five weeks, LPG prices have concluded with a bullish weekly average. Butane prices rose by 3.3%, closing at 372.5 USD/MT. Meanwhile, propane prices, although experiencing an increased weekly average, closed lower than the previous week at 359 USD/MT, down from 360.3 USD/MT. The upsurge in prices can be attributed to pressures stemming from the Middle East crisis. We remain watchful for potential developments arising from the visit of the US President to Israel, as this may influence the trajectory of LPG prices.
Oil Prices on the Rise:
Oil prices have continued their upward trajectory, approaching the mid-90s. If the Middle East crisis escalates, we might see prices reaching the ominous threshold of 100 USD per barrel. However, recent sanctions relief on Venezuelan oil and the visit of Joe Biden to Israel provide some relief by increasing supply in the market. The situation in the Middle East remains a pivotal factor that will significantly influence the direction of oil prices.
Local LPG Prices in Nigeria:
Depot Operations: Recent announcements from NAVGAS on October 20th, 2023, indicated that two primary factors have propelled prices to 16 million Naira per 20 MT. These factors include an increase in the Naira/USD exchange rate and rising international prices. Our in-house analysis suggests that the landing cost of LPG at the depot should be in the vicinity of 14.4 million Naira, intensifying the pressure on depot prices, which consequently affects retail prices. Before this increase, the highest depot price stood at 14.6 million Naira, while the lowest was 14.3 million Naira. It is anticipated that prices are likely to stabilize around the 15 million Naira range in the coming week.
Retail Prices: Retail prices of LPG in Nigeria currently range from 11,500 Naira to as much as 13,500 Naira per 12.5kg cylinder nationwide, based on information received from our followers through our social media channels. We encourage your participation in registering and contributing to our retail price records via our FORUM, as this will help us maintain accurate and up-to-date data.
Please do not hesitate to contact us if you require further in-depth analysis or have specific inquiries regarding these market developments. We provide the insights and guidance you need to navigate this dynamic market effectively.
We appreciate your attention to this report and eagerly await any further questions or requests for assistance.