Our assessment for last week's daily Mont Belvieu propane and butane in USD/mt (5.4% and 4.3% down respectively on the weekly average):
10th October: 454.7; 465.7
11th October: 441.7; 455.8
12th October: 439.4; 442.5
13th October: 430.2; 437.1
14th October: 420.5; 416.5
LPG Butane prices dipped by about 12 % after what appeared to be a resumption of the upward trend, closing at 416.5 USD/MT against the previous week's close of 473.2 USD/MT; the Lowest butane price since 11th of May 2021 ( over 19 months ). Propane prices followed the same trend at closed at 420.5 USD/MT against the previous week's close of 471.3 USD/MT.
What LPG price trend direction should we expect?
The big question and the market have always been uncertain in recent times.
Last week had a lot of conflicting signals for the oil market, which also experienced a pull-back in prices after recording gains in two previous weeks. The US data on inflation is also not helping ( hitting a 40-year high in September). The EIA has also cut the production growth forecast for 2023, citing capital discipline and a lowering global demand outlook. On the other hand, diesel inventories have dropped in the US, signaling a tightening of supplies which could mean upward movement in prices. Oil workers' strikes in France could push oil and gas prices higher, and the OPEC production cut, and of course, the Russian-Ukraine war are factors that could push prices higher.
On the local side, prices have continued to range, increasing slightly to between 12 Million to 12.3 Million in Apapa. But the highest LPG price was lower at 12.4 Million from 12.55 Million at Prudent Energy, Oghara in Delta State.
LPG retail prices at the LPG plants should remain within the same prevailing levels, although we have seen retail prices as high as 11,000 per 12.5kg in some parts of the country.
We expect depot prices to go lower this week.