Weekly Mont Belvieu Propane-Butane price review August 4th, 2023
Our assessment for last week's daily Mont Belvieu propane and butane in USD/mt (8.9% and 8.1% up respectively on the weekly average):
31st July: 376.3; 402.6
1st August: 360.3; 392.3
2nd August: 368.8; 393.0
3rd August: 378.4; 398.5
4th August: 385.2; 405.6
This is the biggest jump since July when the trend changed after a price-ranging period. Butane price rise continues with a significant average increase of 8.1%, while Propane price increased by 8.9% on the weekly average, following the Butane price trend. We expect the upward trend to continue in light of the continued oil production cuts by Saudi and Russia. Now that Butane prices have crossed the 400 USD mark we could expect the journey back to the years' high of 640.4 USD/MT in February.
Crude oil prices continue the upward trend and hit 85 USD per barrel ( Brent) which is the highest since March. We can expect prices to hit the 90 USD mark as more oil production cuts are expected from Saudi Arabia and Russia. Also, the attack on Russia's Black Sea oil terminals suggests a hit on Russia's supply capability which could result in more demand tension and more price increase.
Local LPG prices in Nigeria
Local depot prices moved between 10.3 million and 11 million Naira per 20MT during the week. Prices dropped in Apapa as a result of the LPG cargo from NLNG which comes at a lower landing cost compared to imported cargoes- but prices have since returned to 11 million after the departure of the cargo. Kwale Hydro carbon sold for 10.6 Million, while Stockgap sold at 10.80 million per 20MT for the better part of the week.
We expect prices to hang around the 11 million mark in response to international prices.
On the retail side, there are indications that LPG prices are still in the range of N8000 to N9000 per 12.5kg in most places nationwide.