Weekly Mont Belvieu Propane-Butane price review November 3rd 2023
Our assessment for last week's daily Mont Belvieu propane and butane in USD/mt (0.2% and 4.9% up respectively on the weekly average):
30th October: 340.9; 370.0
31st October: 343.9; 374.3
1st November: 347.4; 388.9
2nd November: 340.0; 390.1
3rd November: 334.1; 384.6
LPG Prices Show a Bullish Trend:
LPG prices have exhibited a rather unpredictable trend in recent weeks. However, this week marked a notable bullish performance, with prices closing at an average of 384.6 USD for Butane and 334.1 USD/MT for Propane. Butane prices are now approaching the 400 USD mark, which seems to be a significant support level.
Oil Prices on the Rise:
Oil prices also increased during the week ending November 3rd, 2023, primarily due to major banks' decisions to keep interest rates unchanged in the US and England. An important factor to monitor is the surge in oil production from the US, reaching its highest level since 2019 at 13.1 million barrels per day in August, according to the EIA. The direction of oil prices could be influenced by the increase in oil supply, indicating a potential bearish trend. However, the uncertainty and concerns arising from the Israeli-Hamas crisis in the Middle East continue to support higher oil prices.
NIPCO and 11 PLC Depots Impact LPG Prices in Nigeria:
The receipt of LPG cargo at 11 Plc and Nipco depots has contributed to keeping LPG prices low in Nigeria. By the end of the week, prices were around 16.35 million Naira per 20MT, with A A Rano offering the lowest at 16.1 million Naira by Friday. The highest LPG prices were observed in the South-South region, where Matrix and Prudent Energy sold at 16.7 million Naira per 20MT.
FX Influence on LPG Prices in Nigeria:
Notably, there was a significant increase in the valuation of the Naira during the week, shifting from 1300 Naira per USD to 1000 Naira per USD, marking a substantial 23% drop. This could result in new import prices of around 14 million Naira per 20MT. The market is eagerly anticipating how these price changes might affect transactions at the depot, as plant owners aim to avoid trading losses.
Retail Prices Remain Stable:
Retail prices of LPG in Nigeria have remained largely consistent with the previous week. Currently, these prices vary from 11,500 Naira to as much as 13,500 Naira per 12.5kg cylinder nationwide, as reported by our followers through our social media channels.
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If you have any further questions or require an in-depth analysis of these market developments, please do not hesitate to reach out. Our team is dedicated to providing the insights and guidance necessary for navigating this ever-evolving market effectively.
Thank you for your attention to this report, and we look forward to addressing any further inquiries or requests for assistance.