Weekly Mont Belvieu Propane-Butane price review October 27th 2023
Our assessment for last week's daily Mont Belvieu propane and butane in USD/mt (6.5% and 0.8% down respectively on the weekly average):
23rd October: 345.5; 365.5
24th October: 339.1; 359.7
25th October: 341.9; 363.0
26th October: 335.4; 362.0
27th October: 341.6; 368.3
Unanticipated Bearish Trends in LPG Prices
In an unexpected turn of events, LPG prices have taken a bearish turn, reversing the previous week's trend. This development is particularly surprising given the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the impending winter season, which typically sees an increase in gas demand for heating. Notably, Butane experienced a marginal 0.8% decrease in its weekly average, while propane prices registered a more significant 6.5% decline on average. The global economic climate, which has been characterized by uncertainty, may be contributing to this pullback in prices.
Decline in Oil Prices:
Similarly, oil prices have undergone a retracement, with values predominantly fluctuating between 88 and slightly above 90 USD per barrel by the end of the week. This indicates that, apart from concerns related to the Middle East, there is a prevailing bearish sentiment in the oil market. The Middle East situation remains a critical factor that will significantly impact the direction of oil prices.
Local LPG Prices in Nigeria Defying Projections:
Depot Operations: LPG prices reached new highs last week, hitting a peak of 16.8 million Naira per 20MT. Towards the end of the week, some level of stability was observed in the market, with NIPCO PLC announcing a price of 16.2 million Naira per 20MT from their Apapa depot. Considering the major factors influencing prices, such as the exchange rate and Mont Belvieu prices, we do not anticipate new highs in the coming week. An announcement from Stockgap at 16.45 million Naira per MT suggests a potential stabilization of prices in the market.
Retail Prices: Retail prices of LPG in Nigeria have remained largely unchanged from the previous week. Currently, these prices range from 11,500 Naira to as much as 13,500 Naira per 12.5kg cylinder nationwide, as reported by our followers through our social media channels. We strongly encourage your participation in registering and contributing to our retail price records via our FORUM, as this collaborative effort assists us in maintaining accurate and up-to-date data.
Should you require further in-depth analysis or have specific inquiries about these market developments, please do not hesitate to contact us. Our team is dedicated to providing the insights and guidance necessary for navigating this ever-evolving market effectively.
We appreciate your attention to this report and look forward to addressing any further questions or requests for assistance.