Our assessment for last week's daily Mont Belvieu propane and butane in USD/mt (9.9% and 7.2% down respectively on weekly average):
26th September: 452.0; 430.9
27th September: 449.2; 434.6
28th September: 453.9; 442.5
29th September: 457.2; 443.1
30th September: 450.7; 442.1
LPG Butane prices closed higher for the week ending 30th September 2022, though lower on the average by 7.2%, closing at 442.1 against 437.1 USD/MT in the preceding week. Propane Prices also closed higher although lower on average by 8.1% against the prior week.
How long would this trend last?
There are several factors to look out for. The Nordstream pipeline leak is already sending signals of impending scarcity in the Natural Gas market in the coming months. Shortages in natural gas could lead to demand pressures for LPG, which could lead to higher prices. The next OPEC meeting comes up this week (October 5th) and has the potential to send oil prices climbing again - with the group planning to cut oil production IN November 2022 - we have seen a direct correlation between WTI prices and falling LPG prices, a reversal could mean a return of LPG price upward trend. Despite the highlighted factors that could send prices back up, the looming recession could reduce oil and gas demand as countries worldwide brace up for the economic impact - this could keep prices low or even lower ( remember the covid-lockdown period).
On the local side, prices have been ranging, but increased marginally from 11.9 Million in Apapa to 12.150 Million per 20MT - likely reason for the increase is the anticipation of the scarcity of local supply by NLNG mainly, as the LPG supply contract year winds up at the end of September 30th. The highest prices remained at 12.55 Million per 20MT at Prudent Energy depot, Oghara.
We expect prices to remain at last week's levels. The OPEC meeting decision is one event to look out for this week.
The retail prices at the LPG plants are expected to remain unchanged.