LPG Price Movement In Nigeria From October–December 2025.

By Oluwabukola Jimoh ــ Last Update 30 December 2025

Between October and December 2025, Nigeria’s Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) market experienced notable price movements that reveal deeper structural weaknesses within the supply chain. This period provides a useful window for understanding how supply disruptions, labour-related shocks, logistics challenges, and speculative behaviour continue to influence retail LPG prices across the country.

This blog analyses LPG retail prices recorded in November and December 2025 across selected Nigerian cities and compares them with the national average price of ₦17,048 per 12.5kg cylinder recorded in October 2025. The aim is to assess price direction, volatility, and what these movements signal about the health of Nigeria’s LPG market.

Price Trends and General Movement

In October 2025, the national average retail price of a 12.5kg cylinder stood at ₦17,048. By November, this average had dropped sharply to ₦15,616, representing a decline of ₦1,432 or approximately 8.4 percent. This significant reduction marked one of the steepest short-term corrections in recent months.

However, the downward trend did not persist into December. By the end of the year, average prices rebounded to ₦16,360, reflecting an increase of ₦744 from November levels. Despite this rise, December prices still remained ₦688 (about 4.04 percent) lower than the October average, confirming that the earlier October spike was not sustained.

October to November: A Market Correction, Not Stability

The sharp price decline between October and November was largely driven by the easing of temporary supply disruptions. The suspension of industrial actions linked to PENGASSAN and partial normalization of depot loadings helped restore short-term confidence in supply availability. As panic buying subsided, prices adjusted downward across many locations, particularly in inland and semi-urban areas such as Kwara, Ijede (Ikorodu), Imo, Ebonyi, and Onitsha, where prices hovered around ₦13,000–₦15,000.

Nevertheless, price disparities persisted. Areas such as Ojo, Lagos recorded prices as high as ₦19,375, highlighting continued inefficiencies in logistics, distribution, and access to supply. These disparities underscore that the November price decline reflected a market correction rather than the emergence of structural stability.

November to December: Early Signs of Renewed Tightness

Between November and December, LPG prices recorded a gradual rebound of about 4.8 percent. This increase coincided with rising logistics costs associated with the festive season, slower replenishment of inland markets, and renewed caution among offtakers following earlier supply shocks.

Retail prices in December largely clustered between ₦15,000 and ₦18,750 per 12.5kg cylinder. Higher prices were observed in states such as Nasarawa, Cross River, Katsina, and parts of Lagos, including Ijora. These increases did not indicate a full scarcity but rather reflected defensive pricing strategies adopted by market participants anticipating potential disruptions.

Net Movement and What It Reveals

When October and December are compared directly, the net result is a price decrease of ₦688 per 12.5kg cylinder. This confirms that the October price surge was largely artificial and driven by uncertainty rather than a sustained shortage of LPG supply. However, the month-to-month volatility observed during this period highlights an ongoing fragility within the market. Prices remain highly sensitive to rumours, refinery-related developments, labour disputes, and logistics constraints.

Structural Drivers of Volatility

Several structural issues explain the observed price behaviour. First is Nigeria’s over-reliance on a limited number of supply sources, which amplifies the impact of any disruption. Second is offtaker behaviour, where strategic withholding and speculative pricing often occur during periods of uncertainty, worsening artificial scarcity. Third, persistent logistics and distribution gaps, especially affecting inland markets, continue to create uneven pricing outcomes nationwide.

Conclusion

The LPG price movements between October and December 2025 reinforce a critical reality: Nigeria’s LPG pricing challenge is not solely a matter of supply volume. Rather, it is rooted in predictability, coordination, and transparency across the value chain. Until the industry improves real-time communication around supply availability, reduces vulnerability to single-point disruptions, and curbs speculative behaviour among offtakers, price volatility will persist, even in periods when underlying supply is adequate. For Nigerian households and businesses, the core issue remains price stability, not merely price reduction. Without addressing the structural weaknesses driving these fluctuations, the LPG market will continue to oscillate between artificial spikes and short-lived corrections.

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Oluwabukola Jimoh

Oluwabukola Jimoh is a dynamic academic writer and captivating energy blogger. She is able to delve into intricate subjects with an insatiable thirst for knowledge, crafting thought-provoking essays that engage and enlighten her readers.